Overall downstream procurement is mainly characterized by "small batches and multiple orders," and the spot market remains sluggish [SMM Tin Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract and LME Tin Contract on June 19, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) exhibited a fluctuating-at-highs pattern, with an intraday trading range of 263,020-264,500 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 263,300 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.05% from the previous day. The open interest of the most-traded SHFE tin contract decreased to 21,158 lots, and the trading volume contracted to 53,667 lots, indicating insufficient willingness among funds to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The LME tin contract was quoted at $32,250/mt, down 0.19% from the previous day, with an intraday high of $32,465/mt. Technically, it stood firm above the moving average group, with a short-term resistance level at $33,000/mt.

In the spot market, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand. Although automotive electronics benefited from the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, overall procurement was characterized by "small batches and multiple orders," and high prices suppressed restocking willingness.

Supply-demand imbalance was prominent: Smelters in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and other regions continued to operate at low capacity due to a shortage of tin concentrates as raw material. The TCs for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan fell to historical lows, prompting some enterprises to enter maintenance or implement gradient production cuts, further tightening the supply of refined tin. The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region was slow (only reaching 50% of the planned capacity), coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation of tin ore, which blocked import channels and exacerbated the tight raw material supply.

In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with a reference range of 258,000-270,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the resistance level at $33,000/mt.